LURNZ Documentation

This page describes and provides documentation of the different modules within the LURNZ model.

Please note that less recent Working Papers will not include the changes and enhancements made in the current running version of LURNZ. Documentation is ongoing.

Land use change module

The land use change module simulates four national land use changes: dairy, sheep/beef, plantation forest, and scrub. These are estimated dynamically, based on an econometrically estimated relationship between different uses of land and corresponding commodity prices (as well as accounting for time trends and an interest rate). The inputs of the module are forecasts of milk solid prices, sheep/beef prices (measured by a weighted average of sheep and beef product price), and forestry product prices.

Documentation

Kerr, Suzi, and Alex Olssen. 2012. “Gradual Land-use Change in New Zealand: Results from a Dynamic Econometric Model”, Motu Working Paper 12-06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington.

Olssen, Alex, and Suzi Kerr. 2013. “Documentation of LURNZ Land Use Change Module”, Motu manuscript, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington.

Land use change allocation module

The land use change allocation module spatially allocates the simulated land use changes (from the first module) using a weighted ranking algorithm, which uses maps of geophysical and socio-economic land attributes to identify land that is likely to change use. The output of the module is a series of rural land use maps.

Documentation

Timar, Levente. 2011. “Rural Land Use and Land Tenure in New Zealand,” Motu Working Paper 11-13, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington.

Anastasiadis, Simon, Suzi Kerr, Wei Zhang, Corey Allan and William Power. 2014. “Land Use in Rural New Zealand: Spatial Land Use, Land-use Change, and Model Validation”, Motu Working Paper 14-07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington.

Intensity and GHG emissions module

The Intensity and GHG module simulates stocking rates and emissions for dairy, sheep and beef livestock, and for fertiliser intensity. It also simulates emissions from deforestation, harvesting and replanting, as well as sequestration from afforestation and scrub reversions.

Documentation

Anastasiadis, Simon, and Suzi Kerr. 2013. “Land Use and Farming Intensity: For 1996, 2008 and 2020,” Report for the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington.

Zhang, Wei, and Suzi Kerr. 2011. “Creating New Zealand Forestry Age Maps in 2002 and 2008 and Estimating and Projecting Plantation Forest Removals and Emissions in LURNZ”, draft, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington.

Timar, Levente, and Suzi Kerr. 2014. “Land-use Intensity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the LURNZ Model”, Motu Working Paper 14-03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington.